The Impacts of Hydro-Politics and Conflict Dynamics on Foreign Policy among Nile Riparian States

Abstract

Purpose: This study examines the influence of Hydro-politics, Water Conflict, and Cooperation Dynamics on foreign policy among Nile Basin Countries, analysing the complex interplay, focusing on how water resources shape international relations that influence foreign policy strategies. Methodology: Using a mixed-methods approach, which combines quantitative and qualitative data, including structured surveys, key informant interviews, and observations, the study examines the perspectives of various stakeholders, ranging from ministries to academic institutions, with a substantial sample size (N = 235) and drawing on established theories such as Hegemony Theory, the Theory of Cooperation and Participation, and the Theory of International Water Resources Governance. Findings: The findings reveal significant correlations, with strong positive links between historic tensions and bilateral Cooperation, linking effective dispute resolution mechanisms to a decline in broader Cooperation. Regression analysis showed that historical tensions, bilateral Cooperation, and regional collaboration have a positive impact on foreign policy, while ineffective dispute resolution has an adverse effect. The qualitative analysis further underscores the persistent influence of historical conflicts, the impact of power dynamics on conflict resolution, and the intricacies of various cooperation frameworks. Unique Contribution to Theory, Policy and Practice: The recommendations advocate for strengthening regional institutions, prioritising transboundary water governance, fostering public awareness, and promoting economic Cooperation. Furthermore, the study emphasises context-specific approaches, adaptive management, and interdisciplinary collaboration to improve water management and address the hydro-political challenges, highlighting further research on climate change and the impact of international actors among Nile Riparian States.